Prospects

We believe that the proportion of Singaporeans aged 65 years and above is estimated to increase from 7% in 1998 to 19% in 2030, a per annum growth of 3.1%. We also estimate that Singapore's elderly population will increase from 220,000 as at January 2000 (representing 7% of Singapore's population) to 312,000 by the year 2010 (estimated to represent about 8% of Singapore's population). As a result, a total of 8,800 nursing home beds will be required by the year 2010. To the best of our knowledge, there are currently about 6,700 nursing home beds in Singapore. To ensure an adequate number of private nursing home beds, we believe that MOH will take steps to increase the number of private nursing home beds from the current 25% to 40% by 2010. This is in response to the expected demand from Singaporeans who would prefer to have more choices and be cared for in more comfortable surroundings. This would mean that private nursing home operators will provide about 3,500 beds out of the total requirement of 8,800 nursing home beds by year 2010 in comparison with the current estimated capacity of 1,660 beds. Further, the Lions Home at Toa Payoh, which has recently commenced operations, will be the last of the VWO nursing homes to be built.

With Singapore's ageing population, an increasing number of elderly Singaporeans will require long term care and support. We estimate that about 8% of the elderly today suffer from disabilities which make them incapable of handling the activities of daily living. Of this 8%, about 2.7% of the elderly will require residential long-term care, and another 5.3% will require non-residential long-term care.

As a larger proportion of the population work full-time, there is also an increasing demand for caregivers for their elderly family members who are sick. Together with increasing acceptance, the use of nursing homes has grown during the last few years.

We also believe that the number of persons over the age of 60 will increase significantly from 2001 to 2011 in Asia, especially in countries such as the PRC, Malaysia and Australia.

The rapid ageing of the population will increase demand for healthcare services and pose a challenge to healthcare planners to provide adequate healthcare facilities, services and support systems.